Thesis Draft on South China Sea Militarization

Title: Militarization and the Risk of Armed Conflict in the South China Sea (A deep dive to understand how growing military activities are shaping regional tensions in the last one decade) Object of Study and Research Question This research focuses on the growing militarization in the South China Sea and its impact on regional stability. Over the past decade, there has been an increase in military deployments, naval presence, and strategic competition among key actors such as China, the United States, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian countries. The main research question guiding this study is to find out, to what extent has the militarization of the South China Sea increased the risk of armed conflict among regional and external actors? A supporting question is to find out how have key actors like China and the United States contributed to rising tensions in the region? Methodology Section This research uses a qualitative approach, as the aim is to understand the behavior, intentions, and narratives of key actors rather than analyze numerical data. Militarization and conflict risk are complex issues that require deeper interpretation of policies, statements, and perceptions. Research Method and Justification The study will use semi-structured interviews and discourse analysis. Interviews are useful because they provide detailed insights from experts, policymakers, and analysts who understand the situation closely (Barbour, 2008). This method allows flexibility and helps capture real-world perspectives that are often not visible in official data. Discourse analysis is used to study how countries describe and justify their actions in the South China Sea (Neumann, 2008). Since tensions are not only shaped by military actions but also by political language and narratives, this method helps explain how conflict risks are constructed and communicated. This combination is suitable because interviews provide first-hand insights, while discourse analysis helps interpret how these views are framed and presented. Data Collection The research will collect data through semi-structured interviews with experts in security, international relations, and regional affairs. Participants will be selected using purposive sampling, meaning individuals are chosen based on their knowledge and relevance to the topic (Sundström & Elgström, 2020). In addition, the study will use secondary sources, including: • Official government statements • Policy documents • Speeches by political leaders • Reports from think tanks and international organisations These sources are important to understand how states publicly position themselves. Data Analysis The collected data will be analysed using discourse analysis. This involves identifying patterns in how actors talk about security, threats, and cooperation in the region. The study will focus on: • How militarization is justified • How other actors are portrayed • How risk and threat are described By comparing these narratives, the research will highlight differences between countries and how these contribute to rising tensions. Ethical and Practical Considerations Ethical considerations will be carefully followed. All interview participants will give informed consent, and their identities will be kept confidential unless they agree to be identified. There may be challenges in accessing high-level experts or officials. To manage this, the study will also rely on publicly available and credible secondary sources. Limitations One limitation of this research is the small sample size of interviews, which may limit generalisation. In addition, interview responses may be influenced by personal or professional bias. Discourse analysis also involves interpretation, which may introduce some subjectivity. However, this will be reduced by using multiple sources and comparing different perspectives. Bibliography: • Barbour, R. (2008) Introducing Qualitative Research. London: Sage. • Neumann, I.B. (2008) ‘Discourse analysis’, in Klotz, A. and Prakash, D. (eds.) Qualitative Methods in International Relations. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 61–77. • Sundström, M.R. and Elgström, O. (2020) ‘Praise or critique? Sweden’s feminist foreign policy in the eyes of its fellow EU members’, European Politics and Society, 21(4), pp. 418–433. Core South China Sea & IR References: • Singh, T. (2016) ‘The South China Sea maritime dispute: political, legal and regional perspectives by Leszek Buszynski and Christopher B. Roberts’, Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 3(1), pp. 108–111. • Fravel, M.T. (2011) ‘China’s strategy in the South China Sea’, Contemporary Southeast Asia, 33(3), pp. 292–319. • Glaser, C.L. (2015) ‘A U.S.-China grand bargain? The hard choice between military competition and accommodation’, International Security, 39(4), pp. 49–90. • Mearsheimer, J.J. (2014) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Updated edn. New York: W.W. Norton. • Storey, I. and Lin, C.-Y. (eds.) (2016) The South China Sea Dispute: Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions. Singapore: ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. • Thayer, C.A. (2016) ‘The South China Sea: From dispute to crisis’, The Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 3(2), pp. 200–221. • Hayton, B. (2014) The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press. Analytical Index: 1. Introduction • Background of South China Sea dispute • Research problem and questions 2. Literature Review • Militarization and security dilemmas • Regional power competition • Gaps in existing research 3. Methodology • Research design • Data collection and analysis 4. Empirical Analysis • Militarization trends in the last decade • Role of China and the United States • Narratives and strategic behaviour 5. Discussion • Link between militarization and conflict risk • Interpretation of findings 6. Conclusion • Key findings • Policy implications • Limitations and future research Below is my supervisor's feedback to make it more rich: Thanks for sharing this. Amazing topic - but we should work on scoping it [login to view URL] proposal is clear and well structured, but it is still too generic and descriptive for a topic as analytically demanding as militarization in the South China Sea. What you have is a solid starting point, but it needs sharper conceptual focus, stronger methodological justification, and a clearer sense of what your research will explain, not just describe. Right now, the biggest issue is that the research question is extremely broad. “To what extent has militarization increased the risk of armed conflict?” is a truism - indeed, militarisation sets the foundations for conflict. Your question should not be whether it does, but how? are you examining escalation dynamics, signalling behaviour, misperception, alliance commitments, or deterrence failures? Without specifying the mechanism linking militarization to conflict risk, the project risks becoming a narrative overview rather than an analytical study. Your methodological choices also need more precision. Semi‑structured interviews are appropriate, but you have not explained who you will interview, how many participants you expect, or how you will ensure diversity of perspectives. Accessing experts on the South China Sea is notoriously difficult; relying on a small number of interviews risks producing anecdotal rather than systematic insights. You should also clarify whether you will include regional voices (Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia) or rely mainly on Western analysts, which would bias the findings. The discourse analysis component is promising, but it is currently underdeveloped. You need to specify which texts you will analyse, how you will select them, and what coding strategy you will use. “Official statements” is too vague—are you analysing foreign ministry press releases, defence white papers, speeches at ASEAN forums, or military briefings? You also need to justify why discourse analysis is the right tool for assessing conflict risk, which is ultimately a behavioural outcome, not just a narrative one. Your justification for a qualitative approach is reasonable, but it reads as a generic defence of qualitative methods rather than a tailored argument. You should explain why quantitative indicators of militarization (e.g., naval deployments, base construction, military spending) are insufficient on their own, and how qualitative data will reveal underlying intentions or perceptions that shape escalation dynamics. The limitations section is honest but too superficial. You need to acknowledge that discourse analysis cannot directly measure conflict risk, and interviews cannot reliably capture state intentions. You should also address the risk of strategic messaging—states often use public discourse to signal resolve or restraint, meaning their statements may not reflect actual policy. Without addressing this, your analysis may take political rhetoric at face value. Finally, the proposal lacks a clear analytical framework. You mention militarization and narratives, but you do not anchor your study in any established theoretical debates—security dilemma theory, deterrence theory, power transition theory, or misperception literature. Without a theoretical anchor, your findings will be descriptive rather than explanatory. In short, the proposal is promising but needs sharper focus, clearer theoretical grounding, more precise methodological detail, and a more realistic assessment of what your data can support. Strengthening these elements will turn the project from a broad descriptive overview into a rigorous, analytically meaningful study.

Project ID: 40411340