3 set tennis.
1. I need to get the formulas where I input:
pA/pB wins the match before the match started; a.b.c.d. before the match started; current set, current game, current pA' during any point of time during the match and I have as output corresponding a'.b'.c'.d' according to classical probability theory (taking account of a.b.c.d. before the match)
2. I need to have the formulas and develop an algorithm of hedging. If at some point in time T' I was able to buy/sell in the a.b.c.d market during the match an 'incorrect' offer (according to our current a',b',c',d'), then at the same T', I need to now how much I should hegde in pA'/pB' market and what should be corresponding hegdes after each game played during the whole match so that I should lock in profit.
Example. Managed to buy at 10th minute 100 euros of a' at 20% prob, when our model shows 25% prob. The formulas/algorithm should tell me, how much I should sell in plA/plB market at current odds (probability) pA'. Also how much my hedge should change (what extra buy/sell should I make after each game played depending on the plA/plB market change).
3. I need these formulas/algorithm introduced in excel/openoffice/R/any application so that it will be easer for me to check.