I've developed a sports management framework that blends Agile Software Development and performance management processes to help teams prioritize metrics, measure value and execute their game plans. I need help creating a formula for estimating Team and Player Recommended Values.
View the framework and process here: [login to view URL]
Within this process teams identify statistics they want to track. They then set thresholds to create metrics for each stat (for example the statistic is Field Goal Percentage and the team threshold, or metric is > 48%). They then assign a value to each metric, from 1-10. 10 being high value (supports the team's most important goals). This is the metric value for the stat.
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This process is also performed for each player (same stats, different threshold's for each player, depending on their past performance and/or skillset).
So, in our Field Goal % example, if scoring is a high priority for the team, then FG % will be high value (let's say 8). If the team shoots above 48% for that game, then they would earn 8 value points for hitting that metric. For each metric that the team achieves, they earn the associated value for that metric. The team (or player) Actual Value is the sum total of the value of the metrics the team (or player) achieved. Meaning if all metrics were set at 5 value, and the team hit 10 metrics, they would have an Actual Value of 50.
The thought process for this method is that if a player can earn value for doing the things that may not be considered as valuable (such as hustle statistics) then they will be more likely to focus on what's important for the team, instead of what's important to them (scoring points). Teams can focus on finding metrics that drive the coach's strategy and team goals.
Where I need your help is in creating a formula that can help analysts determine what the Recommended Values should be. Recommended Value is the total value the analyst believes the team (or player) should be able to achieve, based on the metrics set for them and the metric values.
There is another aspect that needs to be factored into the equation. The framework breaks down the season in regular increments called Sprints. Sprints are usually 10 games, but can be less if the season is short. For example, NBA and NHL play approximately 90 games per year. If Sprints were set at 10, they would have 9 sprints across the season. Sprints are a chance for teams to re-evaluate, adjust and adapt their metrics and strategy and to make adjustments where needed. I need the formula to take into consideration that there are Sprints, and to leverage the Actual Values and/or stats from the previous Sprints to help determine what the Recommended Values and/or metrics should be for the upcoming Sprint.
Therefore, this formula can be used to set up initial Recommended Values for the first Sprint, and helps the analyst adjust the next Sprint's Recommended Values (and/or metric values) based on the team's actual performance in the previous Sprint(s). Perhaps
I understand that this process is more of an art than a science, but I believe a formula can be created to serve as a litmus test to what the coaches and analysts are thinking.
The application I developed allows the analyst to set Recommended Values, it allows players (and the team) to set their Planned Values (the total value they plan to achieve) and it calculates the player and team Actual Values, based on the outcome of the games.
Once we identify a formula, we need to convert it to a formula that can be imported to the application (I can handle this, as long as formula is clarified adequately).