I am looking for an expert in probability.
I am interested in tennis. In a 3set match, there are 4 possible outcomes.
a. player 1 wins (2:0) on sets
b. player 1 wins (2:1) on sets
c. player 2 wins (1:2) on sets
d. player 2 wins (0:2) on sets
What I need:
1. How the probability win of a match in-play (in-running) will affect these markets.
Example: Let's say before the match has started, there is 50% that player1 will win the match and 50% that player 2 will win the game. The probabilities that the match will end (2:0), (2:1), (1:2), (0:2) are 25% each. I need to know how the change in the probabiliy of match winner will affect these 4 markets. If at some point during the tennis game player 1 has 75% of winning the match, what should be respective probabilities of match ending a.b.c.d.
2. I need an algorithm (that can be used in excel or math solvers), where I input the probabilites (odds) of players to win a match and I get respective a.b.c.d. probabilities.
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Hi. I can deliver what you ask for almost immediately (it's quite easy). I can give you mathematical formulas for point 1) and their implementations in excel for point 2).